VIX Term Structure: VIX/VIX3M Backwardation & Contango Tracker
Free VIX Term Structure tracker. The VIX/VIX3M ratio (IVTS) identifies volatility regime shifts. When VIX exceeds VIX3M (ratio > 1.0), the term structure is in backwardation — typically associated with short-term stress and elevated near-term hedging demand. Otherwise the term structure is in contango — the normal calm-market state.
Index methodology and definitions: VIX is the CBOE Volatility Index; VIX3M is the 3-Month Volatility Index. Both are calculated and published by Cboe Global Markets. Daily index closes are sourced from the TradeStation market-data API. Pair this read with our HYG/LQD credit-spreads tracker, market breadth indicators, cross-asset macro panel, and SPY signals for cross-asset context.
- IVTS
- Implied Volatility Term Structure — VIX divided by VIX3M; single-number summary of the curve.
- Backwardation (IVTS > 1.0)
- Near-term vol bid above 3-month vol; short-term stress and elevated hedging demand.
- Contango (IVTS < 1.0)
- Normal state — 3-month vol exceeds spot VIX. Calm-market default.
IVTS Signal (VIX / VIX3M)
Summary statistics across all VIX dimensions
Static text summaries for each chart view above. Click between tabs for the full visualizations; this block surfaces the headline numbers in every dimension regardless of which chart is active.
VIX vs VIX3M (2Y window)
Current VIX 18.26; VIX3M 21.28. VIX range over the 2Y window: 11.9 to 52.3; VIX3M peak 41.5. VIX has closed above VIX3M (backwardation) on 8.7% of trading days.
SPY behavior during backwardation
55 backwardation episodes detected in the available data. Average duration 3.3 days; median 1 days. Average SPY return from episode start to end: -0.65%. Negative average reads are consistent with backwardation accompanying selloffs; positive averages can occur when episodes ended at capitulation lows.
IVTS distribution (2Y window)
Median IVTS: 0.8803; 95th percentile: 1.0249; 99th percentile: 1.1394; current: 0.8581. The bulk of mass sits well below 1.0 (contango); the long thin right tail captures rare backwardation episodes.
Rolling backwardation rate
Most recent rolling fractions of days in backwardation: 30-day 3.3%, 60-day 13.3%, 90-day 8.9%. Sustained elevated readings on the longer windows (60-day, 90-day) are typically the more meaningful regime-level signal.
Recent Backwardation Episodes
The five most recent periods when VIX traded above VIX3M (IVTS > 1.0). The SPY column shows the price change from the day before the episode started to the day it ended — giving a quick read on whether the episode coincided with an equity drawdown.
| Start | End | Days | Max IVTS | SPY return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | 2026-04-07 | 1 | 1.0086 | +0.00% |
| 2026-03-26 | 2026-03-30 | 2 | 1.0522 | -2.03% |
| 2026-03-23 | 2026-03-24 | 2 | 1.0149 | -0.34% |
| 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-12 | 1 | 1.0126 | +0.00% |
| 2026-03-06 | 2026-03-06 | 1 | 1.0098 | +0.00% |
Spot VIX vs VIX-linked products (VXX, UVXY, SVXY)
The VIX index on this page is a statistical measurement of S&P 500 implied volatility — not a tradeable instrument. You can't buy or sell the spot VIX directly. Traders who want exposure use VIX futures, VIX options, or one of several VIX-linked ETPs.
These products track VIX futures, not the spot index, which means their behavior is meaningfully different from the index you see charted here. Most days the VIX futures curve is in contango (longer-dated futures priced higher than near-dated), and long-vol products lose value to that roll. Over multi-year horizons, that drag has been substantial.
| Product | Exposure | Key behavior |
|---|---|---|
| VXX | Long short-dated VIX futures (1× via futures roll) | Loses to contango most days; spikes during stress |
| UVXY | Leveraged long VIX futures (current factor per ProShares prospectus) | Amplified version of VXX. Heavier roll decay; sharper spikes |
| VIXY | 1× long VIX futures (alternative to VXX) | Similar exposure profile to VXX; different sponsor |
| SVXY | Inverse VIX futures (current factor per ProShares prospectus) | Profits during contango (most days); large drawdowns during vol spikes |
| VX futures | Direct CBOE VIX futures contracts | Settle to a special opening quotation of options expiring 30 days later |
The IVTS signal on this page is most useful as a read on market state, not as a direct trade. If you want to act on it, the spot index will diverge from any tradeable product over time. Understand the term-structure mechanics of whichever instrument you use.
Spec caveat: ETP exposures, leverage factors, and even product survival can change over time (XIV was terminated in Feb 2018; UVXY's leverage factor was reduced from 2× to 1.5× in Feb 2018). Always check the current prospectus before trading any of these instruments.
Historical VIX events: how it behaved in past regimes
Major VIX episodes since the 2008 GFC. The pattern: VIX spikes are typically violent and brief — backwardation resolves within days to weeks in most cases (2008–09 and 2020 are the notable exceptions where it persisted). Use this as context for how today's regime compares.
| Event | Window | VIX before | VIX peak | SPY drawdown | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis | Oct 2008 – Mar 2009 | ~20 in Sep 2008 | ~80.9 (Nov 20, 2008) | –55% peak-to-trough | VIX exploded with the Lehman collapse and stayed elevated for months. Backwardation persisted into early 2009. |
| Aug 2015 China devaluation | Aug 2015 | ~13 in mid-Aug | ~53 (Aug 24, 2015) | –11% in 6 days | Sharp single-week spike on yuan devaluation. Backwardation resolved within ~2 weeks. |
| Feb 2018 "Volmageddon" | Feb 5, 2018 | ~15 in late Jan 2018 | 37.32 close, ~50 intraday peak | –10% in 9 sessions | Largest single-day VIX close move on record (~+116%). Forced unwind of short-vol products (XIV terminated). Brief, violent backwardation. |
| Q4 2018 selloff | Oct – Dec 2018 | ~12 in Sep 2018 | ~36 (Dec 26, 2018) | –19% peak-to-trough | Slow grind higher in VIX through Q4. Multiple backwardation episodes in Oct and Dec. |
| 2020 COVID crash | Feb – Mar 2020 | ~14 in mid-Feb 2020 | ~82.7 (Mar 16, 2020) | –34% in 33 days | Highest VIX close on record. Sustained backwardation for ~5 weeks. Fed liquidity actions ended the regime. |
| 2022 rate-hike cycle | Jan – Oct 2022 | ~17 in Jan 2022 | ~36 (Sep 2022) | –25% peak-to-trough | Notably muted VIX response relative to depth of equity drawdown — a slow-grind bear, not a panic. |
| Aug 2024 yen carry unwind | Aug 5, 2024 | ~16 in early Aug 2024 | 38.57 close, ~65 intraday peak | –8% (brief) | Sharp single-day move on USD/JPY unwind; intraday VIX spiked far higher than the close. Backwardation resolved within days. Cross-asset event, not credit-led. |
Peak VIX values are approximate, derived from publicly reported CBOE historical data. Figures shown are daily closes (the data this page also uses). Where intraday peaks differed materially from the close (Feb 2018, Aug 2024), both are noted. For exact values consult the CBOE archive directly. SPY drawdowns are peak-to-trough on closing prices.
Takeaway: the VIX is a sensitive but inconsistent forward indicator. It captured 2008–09 and 2020 forcefully (sustained spikes), but in slower regimes like 2022 the response was muted relative to the equity drawdown. Brief spikes (2015, 2018, 2024) often mark capitulation rather than the start of a longer drawdown.
Three ways to watch the VIX
The VIX is a single index, but how you watch it depends on what you need from it — a daily regime read, raw data for analysis, or real-time execution context for vol products.
| Property | Term-structure tracker (this page) | CBOE Direct (cboe.com) | Terminal workflow (Bloomberg, Refinitiv) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index data | VIX, VIX3M (daily close) | All CBOE volatility indices, free | All vol indices + futures + options |
| IVTS ratio computed | Yes, with backwardation labels | No (raw indices only) | Build via formula bar / scripts |
| Backwardation episode detection | Automatic, with start/end dates and SPY return per episode | Not provided | Custom analytics required |
| Update cadence | Daily after close | Real-time intraday for indices | Real-time intraday for everything |
| Cost | Free | Free for indices, paid for analytics | Subscription |
| Best for | Quick regime read; “is VIX in backwardation today” | Source of truth for index data; historical archive | Trading vol products; intraday options surface analysis |
For the question “is the VIX in backwardation right now and how long has it been,” this page gets you there fastest. For raw index history, CBOE Direct is the canonical source. For active vol-product trading, a terminal is the right tool.
How VIX Term Structure Tracker Works
- 1Pull daily VIX and VIX3M closing valuesEach trading day after the close, we fetch the official CBOE Volatility Index (VIX, 30-day implied volatility) and the 3-Month Volatility Index (VIX3M) directly from the TradeStation market-data API.
- 2Compute the IVTS ratio (VIX / VIX3M)The Implied Volatility Term Structure (IVTS) ratio compares short-term to medium-term implied volatility. When near-term vol is bid relative to longer-term vol, the ratio rises above 1.0.
- 3Classify the regime as backwardation or contangoIVTS > 1.0 = backwardation (stress, near-term fear elevated). IVTS < 1.0 = contango (normal, longer-term hedging demand exceeds short-term). The regime card and stat cards at the top show the current state and how long it has persisted.