50/200 MA Reclaim
Currently FiringSPY closes above both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages after being below both the day before. A classic trend-repair trigger — it flags the moment price transitions from a below-trend regime back above both intermediate- and long-term moving averages.
Rule
Yesterday: close < SMA(50) AND close < SMA(200). Today: close > SMA(50) AND close > SMA(200).7 occurrencesData: 1993-02-02 → 2026-04-14Cooldown: 20 trading daysLast trigger: 2026-04-08
Forward Returns
| Horizon | % Positive | Avg Return | Median | Best | Worst | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 33% | -1.72% | -1.92% | +1.86% | -5.43% | 6 |
| 1m | 50% | -3.61% | -4.49% | +4.85% | -10.85% | 6 |
| 3m | 33% | -0.95% | -1.26% | +5.56% | -11.02% | 6 |
| 6m | 67% | +2.03% | +1.57% | +12.49% | -11.67% | 6 |
| 9m | 83% | +4.91% | +8.26% | +20.31% | -20.30% | 6 |
| 12m | 83% | +2.82% | +8.68% | +24.58% | -42.26% | 6 |
SPY with Trigger Markers
Signal trigger · log scale
Historical Occurrences
| Date | SPY | 1w | 1m | 3m | 6m | 9m | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | $676.01 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018-12-03 | $279.30 | -5.43% | -9.63% | -1.54% | +1.97% | +6.63% | +11.51% |
| 2015-12-16 | $208.03 | -0.97% | -9.60% | -1.75% | -0.73% | +2.57% | +9.03% |
| 2007-12-24 | $149.23 | -2.88% | -10.85% | -11.02% | -11.67% | -20.30% | -42.26% |
| 2004-10-27 | $112.88 | +1.86% | +4.85% | +4.03% | +1.17% | +10.36% | +5.75% |
| 1999-10-06 | $132.63 | -3.35% | +2.94% | +5.56% | +12.49% | +9.89% | +8.34% |
| 1994-10-11 | $46.63 | +0.47% | +0.62% | -0.99% | +8.94% | +20.31% | +24.58% |
Forward returns are computed from SPY closing prices. Cells showing “—” indicate the horizon has not yet elapsed for that trigger.