Financial ConditionsMonthly

SPY & S&P 500 / Money Supply

The S&P 500 price divided by M2 money supply (in trillions), showing the "real" stock market value adjusted for monetary expansion.

SPY Price

$681.92

SPY / M2 Ratio

Last Data: Dec 2025
SPY Close / M2 in Trillions
30.43
SPY $681.92 / M2 $22.41T

Ratio Year-over-Year Change

Last Data: Dec 2025
+11.23%

What It Measures

The SPY/M2 ratio divides the S&P 500 ETF price by the M2 money supply (in trillions of dollars) to reveal the stock market's performance relative to the total money in circulation. - **Numerator**: SPY monthly close price (proxy for S&P 500) - **Denominator**: M2 money supply in trillions (includes cash, checking deposits, savings, money market funds) - **Result**: A ratio showing how much stock market value you get per trillion dollars of money supply This strips away the effect of money printing to show whether stocks are genuinely gaining value or simply reflecting more dollars chasing the same assets.

Why It Matters

**Real vs Nominal Gains**: Nominal stock market highs can be misleading when the money supply has expanded significantly. This ratio reveals genuine purchasing-power-adjusted market performance. **Monetary Policy Impact**: Shows how Fed policy (quantitative easing, tightening) directly affects real stock market valuations. **Macro Perspective**: Popular among macro analysts for identifying periods where the stock market is truly overvalued or undervalued relative to monetary conditions. **Inflation Adjustment**: Provides a different lens than CPI-adjusted returns by using the actual money supply rather than consumer prices.

Key Levels

Rising trend
Real stock market appreciation, genuine wealth creation
Flat trend
Market gains roughly match money supply growth
Falling trend
Market underperforming money growth, real value declining

Data Sources

SPY: S&P 500 ETF daily OHLCV data (1993-02-02 to 2026-03-30)

SPY/M2: - S&P 500 / Money Supply from S&P 500 ETF (SPY) / Federal Reserve (M2)

Units: Ratio (SPY / M2 in Trillions), Not Applicable, Monthly