SPY & OECD Composite Leading Indicator
A composite leading indicator designed to provide early signals of turning points in the business cycle, normalized around 100.
SPY Price
OECD Leading Economic Index
Composite index designed to predict economic turning points
What It Measures
The OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the United States is designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend. The CLI combines various component series that lead GDP, including: - Order books and inventory levels - Building permits and construction activity - Consumer and business confidence surveys - Financial indicators (interest rate spreads, stock prices) - Labor market indicators The index is **normalized** with 100 representing trend growth. Values above 100 indicate expansion above trend, while values below 100 indicate below-trend growth.
Why It Matters
**Early Warning System**: The CLI is designed to signal turning points in the business cycle 6-9 months in advance. **International Comparability**: OECD produces CLIs for all member countries using consistent methodology. **Freely Available**: Unlike the proprietary Conference Board LEI, the OECD CLI is freely available on FRED. **Trend Relative**: Shows whether the economy is growing above or below its long-term trend, not just whether it's growing.
Key Levels
Data Sources
SPY: S&P 500 ETF daily OHLCV data (1993-02-02 to 2026-02-13)
Leading Index: USALOLITONOSTSAM - OECD Composite Leading Indicator from Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Units: , ,