SPY & Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
The Federal Reserve's primary inflation gauge, measuring PCE price changes excluding volatile food and energy components.
SPY Price
Core PCE Year-over-Year Inflation
Fed's preferred inflation measure (excludes food & energy)
Core PCE Price Index
What It Measures
Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures excluding Food and Energy) strips out the most volatile components to reveal underlying inflation trends. This is the specific measure the Federal Reserve targets for its 2% inflation goal. Key characteristics: - Excludes food (~8% of PCE) and energy (~4% of PCE) prices - Uses chain-weighted methodology that adjusts for consumer substitution - Captures about 88% of total PCE spending - Includes services heavily weighted toward housing, healthcare, and financial services The BEA calculates Core PCE from the same data sources as headline PCE but removes food and energy categories before computing price changes.
Why It Matters
**THE Fed Target**: Core PCE is explicitly what the Federal Reserve targets when they say "2% inflation." All FOMC projections use Core PCE. **Policy Decisions**: Fed rate decisions are most directly influenced by Core PCE readings. Markets move significantly on Core PCE releases. **Underlying Trend**: By excluding volatile food and energy, Core PCE reveals the persistent inflation that monetary policy can actually influence. **Services Inflation Focus**: Core PCE is heavily weighted toward services, which is where "sticky" inflation tends to persist.
Key Levels
Data Sources
SPY: S&P 500 ETF daily OHLCV data (1993-02-02 to 2026-02-13)
Core PCE: PCEPILFE - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Units: , ,