Financial ConditionsQuarterly

SPY & Bank Lending Standards (C&I Loans)

Net percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans to large and middle-market firms.

SPY Price

$681.75

Bank Lending Standards (C&I Loans)

Net % of banks tightening standards for large/middle-market firms

Last Data: Jan 1, 2026
Last Release: Feb 03, 2026
Next Release: TBD
5.3%
4-Qtr MA: 10.0%
Mild Tightening

Key Levels

Above +50%
Crisis tightening
+20% to +50%
Recession risk high
0% to +20%
Modest tightening
-20% to 0%
Mild easing
Below -20%
Aggressive easing

What It Measures

This indicator comes from the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS), conducted quarterly. It measures the net percentage of banks that are tightening lending standards versus loosening them. **How it's calculated:** - Banks are asked if their lending standards have tightened, remained unchanged, or eased - The net percentage = % tightening minus % easing - Positive values indicate net tightening; negative values indicate net easing **Coverage:** - Large and middle-market firms (annual sales >$50 million) - Commercial and industrial (C&I) loans for business purposes - Approximately 80 large domestic banks participate

Why It Matters

**Leading Recession Indicator**: Bank lending standards are one of the most reliable leading indicators of economic downturns. When banks tighten, credit becomes harder to obtain, slowing business investment and economic growth. **Credit Cycle Signal**: Tightening typically peaks before recessions and easing peaks during recoveries. **Corporate Earnings**: Tighter lending affects corporate borrowing costs and access to capital, impacting profits and investment. **Fed Policy Transmission**: Shows how Fed policy and economic conditions translate into actual credit availability. **Market Warning**: Sustained tightening above +20% has historically preceded significant equity market weakness.

Key Levels

Above +50%
Crisis-level tightening (rare, severe credit contraction)
+20% to +50%
Significant tightening, recession risk high
0% to +20%
Modest tightening, economic caution
-20% to 0%
Mild easing, supportive conditions
Below -20%
Aggressive easing, typically post-recession

Data Sources

SPY: S&P 500 ETF daily OHLCV data (1993-02-02 to 2026-02-13)

Lending Standards: DRTSCILM - Bank Lending Standards (C&I Loans) from Federal Reserve Board

Units: Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly